IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 and 2 Recap | Stage 3 Predictions

The hometown of Counter-Strike is back. IEM Cologne 2026 is running full speed, with a $1.25 million prize pool and the biggest trophy in CS2 on the line.

While it's been going on for around two weeks, the real game starts now! Stage 3 contains some of the best teams in the scene, and no one can predict how it will go or who will reign.  

But before going into the next stage, let's look back and recap what happened at Stages 1 and 2. Epic moments, historic comebacks, and disappointing losses - everything in one place.

Stage 1: How The Major Started

The Major started on June 2 with a bunch of BO1 matches, where it was easy to follow everything that was happening. Quick and interesting, it was a chance for underdog teams to shine under the spotlight. For example, THUNDER dOWNUNDER, which was put on 0:3 in Pick'Ems a lot, surprised everyone with a victory over MIBR in the opening match. So did Sharks against HEROIC.

But not every team was like that. Gaimin Gladiators, with 2x Major winner Fernando "fer" Alvarenga, were put 0:3 by almost everyone. And indeed, they were that bad, and didn't even manage to win a single map.

On the other hand, BetBoom and B8 showed amazing results and went 3:0 without dropping a single map.

However, none of those matches compares to the NRG vs BIG elimination match. Imagine this: the map score is 1:1, and the decider is Mirage. NRG start flawless on the CT side and win 12 consecutive rounds. Then, the coach of BIG gave an emotional speech, and it clicked with the players. BIG created history by being the first team in the history of CS Majors that won 16 consecutive rounds and came back from a 12:0 score. The dream was kept alive!

Stage 2: Middle Ground

While Stage 1 featured only Tier 2 teams, Stage 2 included a mix of Tier 1 and Tier 2 teams. But the Tier 2 teams were terrified because of one man: donk. Team Spirit went 3:0 with flawless results, while donk had some of his best maps. The results show that in 4 maps, Spirit won 52 rounds and only lost 10.

Another highlight of Spirit was their coach. Hally couldn't attend the Major due to health issues, while Sotf1k wasn't granted a Schengen visa. But to their support came the best coach of all time with a win rate of 100%: Jab Jabich. He's a fluffy frog toy who won over everyone's hearts. And his strategies were clear and effective: "Rush B" and "DONK GO KILL". The toy became so popular that it even got its own personal page on HLTV.

FUT, the former NAVI Junior team, also went 3:0 and secured a spot in Stage 3 by taking down G2. While they are not fully a tier 1 team, FUT have shown time and time again that they are a strong contender.

Although G2 lost to FUT, they destroyed BIG in the next match, with NertZ being a menace on Inferno. Fans have seen NertZ asking for advice from donk before the game, and it seems it helped. With a 21-4 K-D and an overall rating of 2.69, NertZ became the undisputable MVP of the map.

The teams that went 0:3 were FlyQuest and GamerLegion, where the latter lost to B8 2:1, which initiated B8's comeback, and later qualification for Stage 3.

Predictions For Stage 3 And Playoffs

While we don't know everything that will happen, we can try predicting it. Our Pick'Ems demonstrate who we're rooting for in Stage 3. But now, let's also discuss the possible winners of the whole Major.

• Vitality come in with five trophies and a Grand Slam already in 2026, with ZywOo leading all records for HLTV MVPs and LAN MVPs. Every team has spent weeks studying them, and the best-of-three format in Stage 3 gives opponents more chances to find cracks. However, Vitality win even when they're off, and that's the problem for everyone else.
• Team Spirit went 3–0 through Stage 2 with some of donk's best maps, and the all-BO3 format suits a team with their level of firepower. The issue is consistency. This is a team that can win a whole tournament or fall apart on any given evening. Neither of their coaches is present at the Major, which doesn't help. Whether they go deep depends entirely on which version of Spirit shows up.
• NAVI enter as the most credible threat among the direct invites, fresh off a clean 3–0 Grand Final win over GamerLegion at IEM Atlanta 2026 and first on the board in the ESL Grand Slam Season 7 race. A NAVI vs Vitality final would write itself, especially after they dethroned Vitality at Atlanta.
• Falcons are the wildcard. Karrigan joining a roster with NiKo, m0NESY, and kyousuke was clearly a win move, and back-to-back Grand Finals show the pieces are there. If his system clicks under Major pressure, they're a genuine contender. If not, the same questions remain unanswered.
• FUT Esports are the most interesting name from Stage 2 after going 3–0 through the Swiss, beating B8, TYLOO, and G2. The ex-NAVI Junior squad are known for deep preparation, making them exactly the kind of team that can cause chaos in the bracket.

Conclusion

Vitality are the clear favorites to complete the three-peat, and it's hard to argue against them. Five trophies in 2026 before the season even reached its climax, makes a statement no one can deny. Spirit are the most dangerous team in their path. When donk is locked in and the team is clicking, they can beat anyone on any given map.

NAVI are the safest pick for a deep run, coming in with Atlanta momentum and something to prove on the biggest stage. Falcons remain the wildcard: the talent is undeniable, and under karrigan they finally have someone who knows how to win Majors.

One thing is certain: if Vitality win, the debate about the greatest CS team of all time ends right here in Cologne.